Heating Oil Price Guide: Are Heating Oil Prices Going Up or Down?

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Heating oil prices play a vital role in the lives of thousands of homeowners who depend on this energy source for warmth. But given the frequent fluctuations in energy markets, homeowners often find themselves wondering: “Is heating oil coming down in price?”

In this article, we’ll delve into the current trends and factors influencing heating oil prices. Additionally, we will provide insights into whether heating oil prices are increasing or decreasing.

5 Factors Affecting Heating Oil Prices

Before predicting the direction of heating oil prices, it’s essential to understand the key factors influencing the market, including:

1. Conflict in Oil-Producing Countries

Conflicts in oil-producing countries can indeed have a significant impact on heating oil prices. When conflicts arise, they often lead to a drop in fuel supply, affecting the global availability of heating oil. The disruption of oil production facilities, refineries, and transportation routes can pose further challenges in ensuring a steady supply of heating oil to consumers.


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) holds a significant share in the global crude oil supply, contributing to over 80% of it. The primary objective of OPEC members is to collectively determine when to raise or lower oil production levels. By doing so, OPEC ensures a reliable, cost-effective, and consistent supply of petroleum to consumers worldwide.

Simultaneously, the organisation aims to maintain a stable income for producers and a fair return on investment for investors. Consequently, OPEC’s decisions directly impact the price of your home heating oil. Being aware of OPEC’s actions can help you understand and anticipate potential changes in heating oil costs.

3.Weather Conditions

Weather conditions can significantly impact the supply and demand for oil. During extended periods of cold weather, the demand for heating oil rises as households require more fuel for warmth. A higher demand for heating oil inevitably leads to price increases.
Historically, domestic heating oil prices typically decreased during summer months due to reduced demand in warmer weather. However, given the current unpredictability of the energy market, you cannot fully rely on this trend.
Discover how to prevent your domestic heating oil tank from freezing during extreme weather conditions.

4.Competition in Local Markets

Heating oil prices vary among regions, and it’s no secret that areas with numerous heating oil suppliers tend to have lower costs. Conversely, regions with fewer suppliers experience higher prices due to reduced competition, leading to increased expenses for consumers. Therefore, homeowners residing in rural areas typically pay more for heating oil compared to those in urban locations.

At Heating Oil, we proudly supply high-quality kerosene across the UK. Learn more about our local heating oil deliveries near you.

5.Currency Exchange Rates

As a globally traded commodity, exchange rates impact the cost of heating oil in the UK. Both oil-importing and oil-producing countries conduct transactions in US dollars. As a result, a weaker US dollar leads to higher importing costs and oil prices in the UK. Conversely, a stronger US dollar has the opposite effect.

So, are Heating Oil Prices Going Up or Down?

Since the beginning of 2023, we have witnessed a decline in average heating oil prices.* These prices had surged to significant levels in early 2022 due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Several factors have contributed to the decrease in heating oil prices, including increased global oil production and reduced geopolitical tensions.

This price decrease has brought relief to numerous households across the UK that rely on kerosene to heat their homes. According to the Office for National Statistics Census 2021, they estimate the number of such households to be around 865,940.

Despite the drop in prices, there are other ways to maximise savings. Discover our top tips to save money on your heating oil bill in the UK.

Should I Top Up My Oil Tank Now?

With home heating oil prices falling for the first time in years, now might be the ideal time to refill your home heating oil tank, provided you have sufficient space. While there are no certainties about future oil prices, taking advantage of the current situation can be beneficial.
Remember: it’s essential never to let your tank get too low, especially during the winter months. To ensure a well-stocked tank and avoid potential shortages, it is best to act promptly.
Get a free quote for heating oil today and contact our friendly team to place your order.

*Please note that heating oil prices are subject to daily fluctuations. While the information in this article was accurate at the time of publishing, prices may have seen subsequent increases since that date.